Samsara Newsletter

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Week 21, 2019 (May 18 - May 24)

Policy & Economy News

BJP's victory to improve biz sentiment, boost pvt investment: Fitch

India's GDP expected to grow at 7.1 pc in FY20, says UN report

Business News - The India Boom Factor

India to surpass China as largest importer of coking coal by 2025

Mangoes set sail to London from JNPT instead of flying

Seafood exports to US expected to rise

Tea exports from India to Pakistan rising

Indian textile exporters likely to benefit from US-China trade dispute

Iron ore exports from India rise on record International prices

Taiwan looks to fast-track FTA talks with India, eyes higher tech exports

Coal imports to surge to a record in 2019, Shipments will climb 11%: Adani

Shipping News

Hamburg Sud strengthens its product portfolio on Europe-Central America, Caribbean & South America West Coast trade

Logistics News

Modi 2.0: Expect logistics costs to be driven down

CONCOR to invest INR 4,500 cr. (INR 45 billion) in next four years to add 270 rakes

Bengal emerging as new warehousing hub: Reports

Indian Port News

Shipping Secretary inaugurates mechanised coal-handling facility at New Mangalore Port Trust

Container scanner to be installed at Visakhapatnam Port soon

Major Ports continue volume growth in new fiscal

Policy & Economy News

BJP's victory to improve biz sentiment, boost pvt investment: Fitch
PTI: New Delhi, May 24, 2019 Top
The BJP's "apparent landslide victory" is likely to improve business sentiment and outlook for private investment, Fitch Ratings said Thursday.

It said that from a credit rating perspective, Fitch would focus on the extent of the next government's efforts to improve India's weak fiscal finances.

According to the trend, the BJP-led NDA will form the government at the Centre for the second successive term with absolute majority.

"The BJP's apparent landslide victory marks an easing of political uncertainty and is likely to improve business sentiment and the outlook for private investment," Fitch Ratings Director Asia-Pacific Thomas Rookmaaker said.

Fitch said although it expects the fiscal deficit to remain manageable in the next few years, but said it has seen "little indication" so far that the government will pursue significant deficit reduction of the order needed to meet the general government debt ceiling of 60 per cent of GDP by March 2025 as mandated by the FRBM Act.

The global rating agency said it expect the government to remain reform-minded, as the BJP's manifesto highlighted the aim to improve the business environment and governance standards, strengthen infrastructure, and stimulate the manufacturing sector through a new industrial policy.

"Of particular importance from a credit perspective will be the extent of the next government's efforts to improve India's weak fiscal finances.

Fiscal consolidation stalled under the BJP in recent years, and its campaign promise to support farmers' incomes has added to spending pressure," Rookmaaker said.

Last month, Fitch retained India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-', the lowest investment grade, with stable outlook, saying a weak fiscal position continues to constrain its rating.

It was the 13th year in a row that global rating agency Fitch has rated India at 'BBB'. It had last upgraded India's sovereign rating from 'BB+' to 'BBB-' with a stable outlook on August 1, 2006.

Rookmaaker said another area of potential reforms is to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of government administration, and the legal and judiciary system.

"This would allow the government to solidify reforms of its first term, for instance by further enlarging the tax base and improving the credit culture," he said.

Earlier in the day, the US-based rating agency Moody's said its credit view on India will depend on policies of the new government and expressed hope that the country would continue with its fiscal consolidation plan.

"Any credit implications of the outcome of India's general election will be determined by the policies adopted by the government in the next few years. These policies are yet to be formulated," Moody's Investors Service Vice-President Sovereign Risk Group William Foster said.

India's GDP expected to grow at 7.1 pc in FY20, says UN report
Exim News Service: New York, May 23 Top
The United Nations' World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2019 Mid-year Update says that India's economy is projected to grow at 7.1 per cent in the fiscal year 2020 on the back of strong domestic consumption and investment. "Strong domestic consumption and investment will continue to support growth, which is projected at 7 per cent in 2019 and 7.1 per cent in 2020," the report said.

In the meantime, the WESP Mid-year Update noted that growth projections for 2019 have been revised downward in all major developed economies. The growth outlook for many developing economies has also weakened, it said, adding that despite downward revisions, growth in India remains "strong" amid robust domestic demand. "The global growth outlook has weakened amid unresolved trade tensions and elevated international policy uncertainty. Across both developed and developing countries, growth projections for 2019 have been downgraded.

It was also pointed out that a further escalation of trade disputes among the world's largest economies poses a significant risk for both short- and medium-term global growth prospects. Alongside unresolved trade tensions with China, the United States recently signalled its intention to impose additional tariffs on the European Union, primarily targeted at the aircraft and food industries. The impact of a spiral of additional tariffs and retaliation would not only dampen the growth of these large economies, but also have severe spillover effects on the developing economies, particularly those with high export exposure to the impacted economies, said the report, as per a release.

Business News - The India Boom Factor

India to surpass China as largest importer of coking coal by 2025
Freight News: May 25 Top
Fitch Solutions maintains its forecast for an average coking coal price of $195/t for this year, stating that prices will remain elevated, with strong demand from China's steel sector, as US-China relations continue to deteriorate and the probability rises of further economic support from the Chinese government towards domestic industries.

On the supply side, the consultancy company expects production misses from Australia to keep the coking coal market tight in the coming quarters as large diversified miners lose their appetite for mining coal.

"Although we are more positive on coking coal prices in the coming quarters than we were a year ago, we continue to maintain our view that prices will ease in the long term, as the Chinese steel sector resumes its slowdown and the demand for Australian coking coal softens."

Fitch says the steel sector in China accounts for two-thirds of global coking coal consumption.

High-frequency indicators show that, while the largest importer of Australian coking coal, India, saw an 11.7% year-on-year decline in coking coal imports from Australia in the first quarter of the year, China - the second largest importer of Australian coking coal - increased imports by 35% year-on-year in the same period.

Fitch explains that this is despite environmental checks at Chinese ports and port delays, as Australian coking coal remains cheaper than imports from the US.

Chinese authorities have also imposed a lower quota on imported coal at specific ports in 2019 than in 2018. For example, in China's Liaoning province, the combined quota for imported coal - thermal and metallurgical - in the city of Dalian for this year has been lowered to 12-million tonnes, compared with 16-million tonnes last year.

Nevertheless, Fitch says healthy coal import quotas at other ports in the country have buoyed Australian coking coal demand and prices.

Beyond 2020, Fitch anticipates Australian coking coal prices to continue on a multiyear downtrend, driven largely by a resumption in the slowdown of the Chinese steel sector and environmental concerns limiting coal imports.

"Despite the [Chinese] government's support to the economy, it is unlikely to be aggressive, owing to constraints in the form of high debt and a volatile housing market.

"As the pipeline of construction projects thins and existing ones reach completion over the coming years, the steel sector, and by extension coking coal demand, will slow, which will lead to a downward price trajectory for imported Australian coking coal," notes Fitch.

Fitch expects China's coking coal consumption to stagnate out to 2028, compared with a yearly average growth rate of 5% over the last ten years. That said, India should become increasingly important in terms of seaborne demand.

Fitch notes that India is already the largest importer of Australian coking coal, accounting for 24% of total imports from the country in 2018. "We forecast India's coking coal consumption to grow at a yearly average rate of 5.4% between 2019 and 2028, driven by an equally robust expansion in steel production in the country.

"As a result, India will overtake China as the largest importer of global coking coal by 2025, despite the country only importing half as much as China in 2017."

PRODUCTION

On the production side, Fitch says China will maintain its dominance in the producers' market for coking coal, with absolute coking coal production increasing from 536-million tonnes this year to 551-million tonnes by 2028, with production in 2028 being triple that of the second-largest producer, Australia (184-million tonnes).

"This is despite growth slowing from 2.8% between 2009 and 2018 to 0.4% during 2019 and 2028.

"By 2026, Russia will surpass Indonesia as the third-largest coking coal producer in the world."

Over the years, China, Australia and Indonesia will slowly lose the global market share of coking coal production to Russia, India and Mongolia. With 157-billion tonnes of coal deposits, Russia holds the second-largest recoverable coal reserves in the world.

In the longer term, Fitch believes coal mine production in Russia will be supported by President Vladimir Putin's efforts to develop the industry. According to the Ministry of Energy, the Russian government will spend an estimated $123-billion on the coal sector between 2012 and 2030.

Mangoes set sail to London from JNPT instead of flying
Daily Shipping Times: Navi Mumbai, May 24, 2019 Top
In a first, a large consignment of select mangoes was shipped to the European market from JNPT instead of being flown. The shipment of 4,023 dozens of Kesar (1,449 dozens) and Badami (2,574 dozens) mangoes from Gujarat, Maharashtra and Karnataka has been despatched via ship to London instead of availing the usual cargo flight recently for the first time due to escalation of freight charges after Jet airlines suspended its services.

Though more time is taken by sea, the exporters are happy to have saved substantial amount as the farmers can make more profit from the cheaper transport cost.

It was despatched by a special container with temperature control after receiving hot water treatment. The transit period is 23 days.

After the hike in air freight, the exporters were worried about despatching mangoes to European market where India mangoes are in great demand.

Other exporters are also planning to send mangoes to European market through ship, claimed APMC traders.

"With 40% air freight hike this maiden shipment via water will open up a viable transport option for mango exporters not only from Mumbai but also from across the Country. We used to pay Rs 130 freight charges per kg via flight whereas it's

Rs 30-35 per kg via ship. Other traders are all set to export mangoes to Europe by sea from now onwards," said Sanjay Pansare, an APMC mango trader.

Seafood exports to US expected to rise
Exim News Service: Kochi, May 19 Top
After the imposition of an additional tariff of 25 per cent on Chinese imports by the Trump administration, India's seafood products are likely to have a competitive edge in the US market.

India already has a dominant position in the shrimp market in the US and this advantage can be fully exploited to garner a significant share in value-added seafood products, an exporter opined, as per a report.

Tea exports from India to Pakistan rising
Exim News Service: New Delhi, May 22 Top
The recent tensions between India and Pakistan have reportedly failed to dampen the former's tea exports to the latter. In fact, volumes have gone up quite significantly.

Analysts point out that India's tea export to Pakistan could rise to between 20 and 25 million kg in 2019 from 15.83 million kg in 2018.

This has also to be seen in light of the fact that Pakistan has registered a 35.8 per cent rise in per capita consumption of tea between 2007 and 2016, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the UN.

Also, as per Indian Tea Association (ITA), payments from Pakistan are regular, said reports.

Indian textile exporters likely to benefit from US-China trade dispute
Exim News Service: Mumbai, May 19 Top
The additional tariff of 25 per cent imposed by the US on China as part of the ongoing trade conflict between the two has made Indian textile exporters optimistic about opening up of opportunities to increase their share in the American market, says a report.

The Confederation of Indian Textile Industry (CITI) points out that the list of notified $ 200 billion imports from China on which additional tariff has been imposed by the US places Indian textile exporters in an advantageous position. Of the $ 200 billion of imports, textile items comprise just $ 3.9 billion of the value, but still provide enough scope to exporters in India, the report added.

Iron ore exports from India rise on record International prices
Daily Shipping Times: New Delhi May 23, 2019 Top
International iron ore prices climbing to over $100 per tonne, the highest in five years, has kindled hopes of revival in exports of lower grade iron ore from India.

Exports of iron ore of up to 58 per cent attract zero duty. Traders said, once the prices of this baser grade of iron ore breaches $70, exports become a viable option. Odisha alone has in excess of 100 million tonnes of inferior grade iron ore accumulated at the mine heads. Since the ore is not absorbed in the domestic market, exports seem the only outlet. Besides, Odisha, Jharkhand also have inventories of lower grade iron ore. Together, Odisha and Jharkhand account for over 80 per cent of the country's accumulated iron ore stockpile.

Despite the 'zero duty' incentive, exports of lower grade material did not gain traction because of flagging demand in international markets, especially China. China's steel mills had shown more proclivity to buy enriched iron ore and even pellets as the local and national governments there launched a crackdown on polluting industries to meet emission norms.

Taiwan looks to fast-track FTA talks with India, eyes higher tech exports
Daily Shipping Times: New Delhi May 23, 2019 Top
With an eye on carving out a larger share of the Indian tech products and precision tools market, Taiwan is looking to fast-track discussions on a trade deal with India.

"Talks are on and we expect things to move quickly after the bilateral investment promotion agreement was signed last year. We look forward to the prospects of a free trade agreement (FTA)," James C F Huang, Chairman of the Taiwan External Trade Development Council (TAITRA), said, on the sidelines of the Taiwan Expo 2019.

"We have few FTAs due to political difficulties. As a result, our products have to be more competitive and of better quality, as they face high import duties in most Countries," Walter M S Yeh, President and Chief Executive Officer of TAITRA, said.

However, the nation is systematically building up trade partnerships, currently with seven FTAs and three preferential trading agreements, one of which is with manufacturing and consumer behemoth China.

Coal imports to surge to a record in 2019, Shipments will climb 11%: Adani
Daily Shipping Times: Ahmedabad, May 22, 2019 Top
India's thermal coal purchases are expected to surge to a record this year and remain robust through the next decade as domestic supply lags demand, according to the Country's largest importer.

Overseas shipments will climb almost 11% to 184 million metric tonnes during the financial year started April 1, and rise further to average about 200 million tonnes annually through the following decade, according Vinay Prakash, Chief Executive Officer for coal and mining at Adani Enterprises Ltd. Generators designed to run on imported coal will keep fueling demand, while consumers close to the coast are also likely to favor imports due to the higher cost of railing domestic supply to their operations, he said recently.

Shipping News

Hamburg Sud strengthens its product portfolio on Europe-Central America, Caribbean & South America West Coast trade
Exim News Service: May 21 Top
The trade between Europe and Central America, Caribbean and South America West Coast has always been a key element in Hamburg Sud's global network of liner services. In cooperation with Maersk, Hamburg Sud will be expanding and enhancing the services it offers on this core trade beginning in June 2019.

"Combining the strengths of Hamburg Sud and Maersk, we can offer our customers a best-in-class stand-alone service configuration without having to depend on vessel sharing agreements with other shipping companies," says Mr Frank Smet, Chief Commercial Officer of Hamburg Sud. "This allows maximum flexibility towards the needs of the trade and our customers because we can design and operate the systems totally independently. This also allows us to make seasonal adjustments to cater to specific cargo flows, for example, to reduce transit times for perishables or to call different ports on a direct basis if there is sufficient demand from our clients to do so."

The new stand-alone service covering Europe to/from Central America, Caribbean and South America West Coast (SAWC1) will provide operational integrity, high schedule reliability and additional features, such as:

H Fast direct connection between the Chilean ports of San Vicente and San Antonio and North Europe

H Improved links to global network through the hub ports of Balboa, Cartagena and Manzanillo; customers will have access to the market-leading global Maersk Group network, including the US, Russian, Mediterranean and Middle Eastern ports

H Increased South American port coverage with multiple services moving through the West Coast of South America; customers will now have services to/from an unparalleled number of ports in Chile, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia

Eight ships of the post-Panamax class (4,500 TEUs wide beam) will be deployed on SAWC1. With their 1,400 reefer plugs each, the vessels are ideally suited to cover the requirements of the trade.

In addition, Hamburg Sud will continue to have access to the existing Eurosal service (SAWC2), providing coverage for ports in Colombia and the Dominican Republic, while also maintaining a direct connection to/from the French port of Le Havre.

The first northbound sailing of the new SAWC1 service is scheduled to be on June 10, 2019, with the Luna Maersk departing from San Antonio. The first southbound sailing is Lexa Maersk with ETD from Antwerp on June 6, 2019, said a release.

Logistics News

Modi 2.0: Expect logistics costs to be driven down
Business Standard: May 25 Top
The next big revolution is expected to be around multi-modal transport There are many elements that can make Make-In-India thrive. A sound industrial policy is one of them. Logistics, and how efficient it is, certainly is another. As a percentage of the GDP, logistics costs in India form 13-14 per cent of the GDP. How can the new NDA government help bring it down to 10 per cent, or even below?

Here's what we can expect in terms of policy over the next few years.

The Draft National Logistics Policy will be finalised and India could finally get an Integrated National Logistics Action Plan, like some of the more developed countries. 'Integration' has to do with the different ministries that currently deal in logistics -- Rail, Roads, Shipping, Civil Aviation. The draft policy mentions that "the Integrated National Logistics Action Plan will serve as an optimised master plan to define logistics priorities across ministries including MoRTH, Ministry of Shipping, Ministry of Railways, Ministry of Civil Aviation, D/o Posts and the user ministries (Ministry of Coal, Ministry of Steel, Ministry of Mines & others). Subsequently, it is important to define an annual execution plan, and continuously monitor progress against the set objectives of driving efficiency and reducing costs and dwell times. An immediate focus of the annual execution plan will be to identify and drive specific interventions to optimise logistics costs for key commodities across the top corridors."

Modi 1.0 made some interventions for the logistics sector - GST being the most talked about. Same taxes across India meant that warehouses need not be in different geographic locations for taking advantage of tax arbitrage. It is early to say but there are reports that faster movement of goods is resulting in cost savings for corporate already. The next big revolution is expected to be around multi-modal transport. There is a heavy reliance on roads, which form roughly 60 per cent share of the transport mix today. Railways form 31 per cent of the mix while waterways are just about nine per cent. The Indian coastline and river networks are under-utilised. The cost of coastal shipping, per tonne per kilometre, is far lower compared to either roads or railways. A Deloitte-Assocham report states that "addressing these anomalies alone provides a huge potential to lower logistics cost in the economy by Rs 21,000-27,000 crore (Rs.210 - 270 billion) by 2025". Modi 2.0 is expected to work towards an international benchmark when it comes to multi-modal transport - about 25-30 per cent share of roadways, about 50-55 per cent share of railways and a far higher 20-25 per cent share of waterways.

The logistics industry is largely unorganised. About 85 per cent of truck owners own less than five trucks. There will be value in organising the unorganised but this requires standardisation. Pirojshaw Sarkari, CEO of third-party logistics company Mahindra Logistics told Business Today recently that without standardisation, the cost of logistics will be very high. He cited the example of a pallet. "We store goods and move goods on a pallet. There is no standard pallet size. As a logistics company, when I pick up company A's load, I want to optimise the load depending on the pallet size of A. However, while returning, I have to take the load of company B, and if the size is different, I cannot optimise the load. Standardisation is important not just for lowering costs but for safety as well," he said. We can expect some amount of standardisation, in the months ahead.

CONCOR to invest INR 4,500 cr. (INR 45 billion) in next four years to add 270 rakes
Exim News Service: Chennai, May 19 Top
The Container Corporation of India (CONCOR) intends investing Rs 4,500 crore (Rs.45 billion) in the next four years to add 270 rakes to its existing fleet of 343 rakes, says a report.

Interacting with media recently, Mr V. Kalyana Rama, Chairman and Managing Director, CONCOR, said, "This year, CONCOR plans to invest Rs 1,000 crore (Rs.10 billion) on infrastructure, dry ports and IT systems."

The company also plans to explore the use of containers to transport break-bulk cargoes like cement and foodgrains. "The use of containers for cargo movement within the domestic market is still minuscule," he added.

Besides, after testing coastal shipping from Deendayal Port to VOC Port via New Mangalore Port and Cochin Port, CONCOR wants to extend this up to Bangladesh, which can also be serviced under coastal shipping. There is huge demand in Bangladesh for materials like clinker and cement, it was pointed out.

"You will shortly hear about the Bangladesh service," Mr Kalyana Rama said.

CONCOR registered a net profit of Rs 1,200 crore (Rs.12 billion) in 2018-19, handling 3.83 million TEUs across its 83 terminals.

It expects 10-12 per cent growth in both volume and top line in the current fiscal, Mr Kalyana Rama said, as per the report.

Bengal emerging as new warehousing hub: Reports
Daily Shipping Times: Kolkata May 23, 2019 Top
West Bengal, and particularly Kolkata and its suburbs, is fast emerging as a major warehousing and logistics hub.

Logistics-focused global PE funds and developers such as Morgan Stanley, ESR (backed by Warburg Pincus), Allcargo Logistics, Indospace, Embassy and others are putting in big money.

The Delhi Road, Old Delhi Road and Bombay Road areas are around

30-40 km from the city and are well connected to North Indian, Eastern and North-Eastern States.

What has induced developers and

PE funds to look at the Eastern region are the advent of GST, better connectivity, higher penetration of e-commerce and a sound 'hub and spoke' model. Kolkata and its suburbs took up warehousing space to the tune of 3.5 million sq ft last year.

Locational advantage: According to Swapan Dutta, Branch Director Corporate - Senior Management, at real estate consultancy firm Knight Frank (India) Pvt Ltd, there is a distinct move from smaller warehouses in the Northern and Southwestern fringes of the city.

The preferred areas include those along the highways. Nearly, 80-90 per cent of the upcoming Grade A and B warehousing stock are along the NH 6 and NH 2 and adjoining areas.

"At least Rs 500-700 crore (Rs.5-7 billion) worth of warehousing and logistics projects are coming up along NH 2, NH 6 and Old Delhi Road areas. They will be ready in perhaps 12-15 months," Dutta told.

Investment potential: Land prices have shot up by 30 per cent as a consequence - from Rs 70 lakh (Rs.7 million) an acre toaround Rs 1 crore (Rs.10 million). An additional Rs 1,500 per sq ft is being spent on construction. Real estate consultants JLL had said in a 2018 report that between 2018 and 2020, there would be Rs 4,300-crore (Rs.43 billion) investments in warehousing and logistics in the State.

The major investors include FMCG players and e-commerce companies such as Flipkart and Amazon. Some 3PL companies such as Mahindra Logistics are also taking up space in upcoming logistics parks.

Indian Port News

Shipping Secretary inaugurates mechanised coal-handling facility at New Mangalore Port Trust
Daily Shipping Times: Mangalore, May 24, 2019 Top
New Mangalore Port Trust (NMPT) has added a new facility for mechanised handling of coal at the port.

The Shipping Secretary Gopal Krishna, IAS, inaugurated the new terminal facility in the presence of M Beena, Chairperson of NMPT.

Chettinad Mangalore Coal Terminal Pvt Ltd has executed the mechanised common user coal terminal project at a cost of Rs. 469.46 crore (Rs.4.69 billion) at New Mangalore Port.

Addressing media persons at the inauguration of the newly constructed terminal for mechanised handling of coal at berth no. 16, V Chandramoleeswaran, Director of Chettinad Group, said the capacity of the fully automated coal terminal is 10 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of common user coal. Now the port is handling around 4 MTPA of common user coal.

The facility has two ship unloaders with designed discharge rate of 4,000 tonnes per hour (TPH). Two stacker-cum-reclaimers with capacity of 4,000 TPH for stacking and 4,000 TPH for reclaiming are part of the coal terminal. He said the coal would be transported from storage yard to wagon yard in fully enclosed conveyor belt system.

Capacity

The wagon loading system can load seven rakes per day. A rake includes 59 wagons. He said a wagon can be loaded in a minute.

The 325-metre-long and 25-metre-wide berth at the port has the capacity to handle vessels up to 1 lakh (0.1 million) DWT (deadweight tonnage) with maximum permissible depth of 15.1 metres. The terminal will become fully operational next month, he said.

Container scanner to be installed at Visakhapatnam Port soon
Exim News Service: Visakhapatnam, May 22 Top
A container scanner is set to be installed at Visakhapatnam Port next month in order to provide better security, prevent wrong declarations, as well as smuggling in concealed form, it is learnt.

The equipment will be installed in the compound of Visakha Container Terminal, a BOT operator at the port, said a report.

The scanner will be equipped with a U-shaped arm and high resolution cameras, and the method of scanning will be non-intrusive, the report added.

Major Ports continue volume growth in new fiscal
Exim News Service: New Delhi, May 21
Top
Higher demand for coal, petroleum, oil and lubricants have enabled the 12 Major Ports to begin the new fiscal on a positive note by registering a 5.65 per cent increase in cargo handling to 60.07 million tonnes (mt) in April 2019, as against the 56.86 mt recorded in the same month of the previous year.

As per Indian Ports Association (IPA) figures, Deendayal Port handled the highest traffic volume at 11.30 mt in April 2019, followed by Paradip Port at 9.55 mt, JNPT at 5.99 mt, Visakhapatnam Port at 5.69 mt and Mumbai Port at 5 mt. Kolkata Port handled total 4.95 mt of cargo, while Chennai Port handled 3.94 mt.

The Major Ports had handled 2.90 per cent more cargo year-on-year, at 699.04 mt, in 2018-19, primarily propelled by increased traffic of coal, fertilisers and containers, said a report.

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