According to Bank of America, India's foreign-exchange reserves are projected to reach US$ 745 billion by March 2026, providing the central bank with enhanced capacity to influence the rupee. Analysts Mr. Rahul Bajoria and Mr. Abhay Gupta noted that the monetary authority appears relaxed about accumulating larger forex reserves, driven by a desire to establish buffers against potential external risks. While India's reserve adequacy remains strong compared to other major emerging markets, it is not excessive.

India holds the world's fourth-largest foreign reserves at US$ 692 billion, bolstered by increasing overseas inflows into the country's stocks and bonds, which have enabled the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to elevate its stockpile to a record high. This substantial amount offers stability to the rupee amid external shocks, with the RBI utilizing its reserves to mitigate extreme fluctuations in the currency, which is hovering near a record low. RBI Governor Mr. Shaktikanta Das has consistently emphasized the importance of building a forex buffer to safeguard against market volatility. Mr. Rahul Bajoria and Mr. Abhay Gupta remarked, "USD/INR's wider daily ranges recently have created some wiggle room for limited INR appreciation and higher volatility than the past year." They added that the RBI can achieve its dual objectives of increasing reserves while maintaining currency competitiveness and allowing for gradual INR appreciation.

India's consumer durables sector, currently contributing 0.6% to the nation's GDP, is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%, reaching US$ 35.73 billion (Rs. 3 lakh crore) by 2029, according to a report by EY Parthenon and CII. The sector's GDP contribution is expected to increase by 1.5 times, aiming to become the fourth-largest market for consumer durables by 2027 and the global leader in this industry by 2030 while also creating 500,000 new jobs. partner and national leader for the consumer product and retail sector at EY Parthenon, Mr. Angshuman Bhattacharya, stated, "India is on its way to becoming a major player in the global consumer durables market, driven by increased domestic consumption, a strong focus on indigenization, and sustainability." He highlighted that the expanding domestic market presents a substantial opportunity for this sector to boost production, bolstered by initiatives like Atmanirbhar Bharat, Make in India, and the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.

EY Parthenon noted that consumers increasingly invest in premium and value-added products within the durables industry. As discretionary spending for household upgrades rises, air conditioners are becoming a necessity rather than a luxury. TV penetration reached 60% of households in 2023. Technological advancements drive continuous demand for smart appliances, resulting in shorter replacement cycles as consumers seek the latest technologies. Although India currently lags behind other countries in online sales, with nearly 14% online salience, the market is expected to grow, driven by greater brand choice and home delivery options. EY Parthenon emphasized the need for collaboration between government and industry stakeholders to accelerate domestic demand, suggesting incentives for energy-efficient products and harmonizing GST slabs to enhance affordability and boost ownership across all income groups.

India's deal-making landscape experienced a notable increase in the third quarter of 2024, with 551 deals valued at US$ 19 billion. This marks the highest quarterly deal volume since the first quarter of 2022, reflecting heightened investor confidence and a robust economic environment, as consulting firm Grant Thornton Bharat reported. Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity reached an all-time high in deal volumes, recording 214 deals in a quarter. Notable companies on an acquisition spree included Nazara Technologies, 9 acquisitions worth US$ 223 million, and Aditya Birla Group and Lodha Group, each with 5 acquisitions. Cross-border outbound deals reached a 10-year high, totalling 35 transactions worth US$ 5.3 billion, significantly contributing to the surge with a 57% increase in volume and 65% in value compared to the previous quarter. Bharti Enterprises' US$ 4 billion acquisition of a 25% stake in a British telecom group emerged as the quarter's deal. At the same time, domestic activity recorded a remarkable 54% volume increase and a 24% value increase, achieving an all-time high in quarterly volumes.

The private equity (PE) landscape also saw robust activity, with 337 deals valued at US$ 7.6 billion, the highest deal volumes since the third quarter of 2022. The retail and consumer sectors continued to dominate PE activity. At the same time, banking and financial services and energy and natural resources contributed significantly to the quarter's values. High-value transactions accounted for a substantial share, capturing 56% of the total PE investment market. Notable deals included Brookfield Global Transition Fund's US$ 550 million investment in Leap Green Energy. The IPO and Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP) landscape witnessed significant activity, with 25 IPO listings valued at US$ 4.1 billion, marking the highest volumes and the second-highest values in the last year. QIP activity reached unprecedented levels, with 42 deals worth US$ 6.5 billion, reflecting strong institutional investor confidence. Key sectors driving this growth included telecom, banking & financial services, and retail, indicating broad-based market interest and robust economic growth.

The World Bank on Thursday uped India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year, ending in March 2025, to 7% year-on-year, up from April's estimate of 6.6%, helped by a rebound in agricultural output and increased private consumption.

The RBI's rate-setting panel on Wednesday retained its real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast at 7.2 per cent for FY25. With this, the RBI has now pegged growth rate for Q2 at 7% (reduced from 7.2%), Q3 at 7.4% (up from 7.3%%) and Q4 at 7.4%. For Q1 FY26, the growth rate was kept at 7.3%.

Meanwhile, the central bank left its inflation forecast for this fiscal year unchanged at 4.5%, even amid caution on food prices and intensifying geopolitical tensions that may disrupt energy supplies and take crude prices further higher.

"The MPC noted that the domestic growth outlook remains resilient supported by domestic drivers – private consumption and investment. This provides headroom for monetary policy to focus on the goal of attaining a durable alignment of inflation with the target," said Das.

Tea exports from India saw a healthy 23.79 per cent growth (year-on-year) to reach 144.50 million kilograms in the January-July period this year.

According to the Tea Board of India, the country exported 116.73 million kg in the same period in the year 2023. The export of tea increased by 27.77 million kilograms this year compared to the same period last year.

However, the single unit price during the first seven months of 2024 has remained at Rs 256.37 per kg. It was Rs 264.96 per kg in the same period last year.

Meanwhile, a Tea Board official said the Commerce Ministry has approved a scheme of Rs 664.09 crore for the development and promotion of tea industry.

This amount will be spent during the remaining period of the 15th Finance Commission cycle — financial year 2023-24 to 2025-26 — under the Tea Development and Promotion Scheme.

The development of tea industry includes plantation development and quality improvement, promotion and market support, technical intervention, research and development and welfare and capacity building measures. Approval has been taken regarding these measures.

Earlier in September, the tea industry had cited sluggish growth in domestic consumption, rise in food inflation and slow growth in exports, following the Covid pandemic, as major challenges for the industry.

Tea producer associations and the Tea Board of India had expressed concern over the slow growth in demand in the country.

According to the 2023 data of the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India is the second largest tea producer with production of about 1350 million kg.

The country is the largest black tea producer and is self-sufficient to meet domestic requirements and export obligations.

India consumes about 18 per cent of the world's total tea consumption.

Moreover, India is the fourth largest exporter of tea besides meeting the needs of domestic consumers.

India's textiles sector is poised for significant expansion, with Ready-Made Garments (RMG) exports of all textiles registering 11% YoY growth as per August 2024 trade data, indicating a positive outlook. The sector is expected to grow to US$ 350 billion by 2030, driven by India's inherent strengths and supportive policy framework promoting investment and exports. With a comprehensive value chain, robust raw material base, large export footprint, and a rapidly expanding domestic market, India maintains its leadership position in textiles. Numerous investment decisions in the pipeline signal further growth for the industry.

The government has launched several schemes and policy initiatives to capitalize on these strengths and help achieve the US$ 350 billion target by 2030. Investments exceeding US$ 10.72 billion (Rs. 90,000 crore) are anticipated through the PM Mega Integrated Textile Region and Apparel (PM MITRA) Parks and Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme over the next 3-5 years. The PM MITRA Parks aims to establish India as a global hub for textile manufacturing and exports, with each park expected to attract US$ 1.19 billion (Rs. 10,000 crore) in investment and generate 1 lakh direct jobs and 2 lakh indirect jobs. The PLI Scheme, projected to bring in over US$ 3.33 billion (Rs. 28,000 crore) in investments, is set to create a turnover of over US$ 23.82 billion (Rs. 2,00,000 crore) and generate 2.5 lakh jobs by promoting the production of MMF apparel, fabrics, and technical textiles. Focusing on strategic sectors, the National Technical Textiles Mission aims to drive innovation in specialized textiles, supporting startups and research projects across various industries, including defence, medical, and environment-friendly textiles.

In India, the mango export sector has utilized radiation processing to adhere to international phytosanitary standards, enabling access to markets such as the USA. Exports, which resumed in 2007 with the commissioning of the KRUSHAK irradiation facility, have observed a consistent increase, with projections indicating shipments of 2,500 tonnes in 2023 and 3,000 tonnes in 2024. Major mango-producing states include Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Bihar, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu, with significant export contributions from Maharashtra and Gujarat.

India boasts 28 food irradiation plants, with the Maharashtra State Agricultural Marketing Board (MSAMB) operating the KRUSHAK facility for mangoes, onions, spices, and food grains. This irradiation process not only ensures compliance with phytosanitary requirements but also extends the shelf life of the produce.

Since 2007, mango exports to the US have shown a positive trajectory, with the volume reaching 1,150 tonnes by 2017 and further growth anticipated. P A Hassan from the Homi Bhabha National Institute highlighted the role of radiation processing in meeting international demand and standards.

Expanding its market reach, India has also commenced mango exports to Australia, Malaysia, and South Africa, with the first successful sea-route shipment to the US marking a significant milestone. This transition to sea freight offers cost advantages and the ability to handle larger volumes, presenting a promising outlook for the Indian mango export industry.

India has eased certain conditions for UAE in the bilateral investment treaty by including portfolio investments and reduction in the local remedies exhaustion period from five years to three years in the pact, economic think tank GTRI said on Monday.

The India-UAE Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) came into force on August 31 this year.

The model BIT requires investors to attempt to resolve disputes through India's legal system for at least five years before seeking international arbitration.

In contrast, the India-UAE BIT reduces this period to three years, giving investors quicker access to Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS).

"While this makes the treaty more investor-friendly, it also weakens India's ability to settle disputes domestically, increasing the likelihood of arbitration cases that could challenge India's regulatory decisions," the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said in a statement.

It added that local remedies exhaustion means that investors must first try to resolve their disputes using the legal system of the host country before they can take the matter to international arbitration.

"Reducing the local remedies exhaustion period to three years weakens India's ability to resolve disputes internally, increasing the likelihood of cases being brought to international arbitration," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava said.

He added that this shift may lead to more frequent and costly arbitration proceedings, which could challenge India's regulatory decisions on a broader spectrum of investment issues.

It signals a softer stance on the protection of sovereign decision-making compared to the Model BIT, he said.

India negotiates these treaties with other countries based on the Model BIT text.

Further, it said that unlike India's Model BIT, which excludes portfolio investments such as stocks and bonds, the India-UAE BIT includes them as protected investments.

"This broadens the scope of the treaty, allowing investors with passive financial holdings to use the Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism," it said, adding that this shift increases India's exposure to disputes over financial instruments, even those that do not contribute significantly to economic development, moving away from the Model BIT's focus on long-term investments.

The Model BIT excludes portfolio investments, focusing only on direct investments that involve a tangible commitment of resources.

"This narrower definition helps protect India from claims related to financial instruments, such as stocks and bonds, which are often considered less integral to the host country's economy," Srivastava said.

Overall, he said, the treaty signals a shift towards a more open investment environment at the expense of some regulatory sovereignty.

While it may attract more UAE investment, it also raises the risk of higher arbitration claims against India.

India would soon be approached by other countries to sign BITs on similar liberal terms, he added.

India's Model Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) introduced in 2016, was developed as a response to India's experience with previous investment treaties and aimed to provide a more balanced framework for investor protection while safeguarding India's regulatory sovereignty.

The India-UAE treaty was signed on February 13, 2024, and came into effect on August 31, 2024, with the announcement made on October 7, 2024.

The previous investment agreement, signed in December 2013, expired on September 12, 2024.

UAE is the seventh largest with a share of 3 per cent in the total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) received in India, with a cumulative investment of about USD 19 billion from April 2000 to June 2024.

India also makes 5 per cent of its total Overseas Direct Investments in UAE to the tune of USD 15.26 billion from April 2000 to August 2024.

Ocean Network Express (ONE) has announced the launch of its new weekly service - India Coastal Express (ICE) – connecting West Coast India, Sri Lanka and East Coast India.

The introduction of the new ICE service will undoubtedly expand ONE's service offerings and enhance its overall network in the ISC region, with transhipment hubs at Colombo and Mundra, it highlighted in a release.

The service details are as follows:

Port rotation: Mundra – Pipavav – Mangalore – Cochin – Colombo – Kattupalli – Visakhapatnam – Kattupalli – Colombo – Cochin – Mangalore – Mundra



Turnaround: 28 days

Effective voyage: – MV Mogral v.0087 with ETA Visakhapatnam Oct. 23, 2024.

PSA Mumbai inaugurated the China India West Coast (CIW) service on 04th October 2024, enhancing connectivity between the Far East and the Indian subcontinent. With ports in Shanghai, Ningbo, and India now connected through this service, the CIW will feature weekly sailings. Sinotrans India Pvt. Ltd., Bengal Tiger Line (Pte) Ltd., and SeaLead will deploy vessels for this new service.

The inaugural sailing to Nhava Sheva on October 4, 2024, with the following port rotation: Shanghai – Ningbo – Shekou – Nhava Sheva – Mundra – Shanghai. This service aims to provide faster, more efficient shipping solutions to the fast-growing EXIM trade between China and India.

The new CIW service will further strengthen global trade connections and improve efficiency across the region, highlighted the press release.

The revenues of the Indian road logistics industry is expected to grow by a moderate 6-9 per cent year on year (YoY) in fiscal 2024-25 (FY25), according to ICRA.

Following some disruption in business activities during the first quarter (Q1) of FY25 amidst the general elections, the sector prepares for the much-awaited seasonally strong festive period.

An increase in manufacturing output amidst restocking and an uptick in consumer spending and ecommerce activities augur well for logistics demand, ICRA said in a note.

This, coupled with a favourable monsoon and the government's continued thrust on capital formation, is likely to support revenue growth.

ICRA maintains a 'stable' outlook for the sector, fuelled by various government measures and policies in favour of the sector and the expectation of a stable demand outlook from varied segments like e-commerce, fast moving consumer goods, retail, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and industrial goods.

ICRA foresees organised players to maintain the pricing premium amid an overall inflationary cost scenario and shall support operating profitability in FY25.

The e-way monthly volumes have grown steadily over the years and remained largely stable in the last four months at above 100 million, with August 2024 reporting all-time high volumes of 105 million, signifying resilient domestic trade and transportation activities.

In a significant shift, central government-owned ports, also referred to as major ports, have surpassed private and state-government-operated ports in cargo traffic growth for the 2024-25 financial year. Data from the Ministry of Ports, Shipping, and Waterways reveals a 5% increase in cargo handled by major ports, reaching 348.06 million tonnes (MT). This growth is primarily driven by a 4.9% rise in overseas cargo and a 5.2% uptick in coastal cargo, marking a strong recovery after the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

In contrast, private and state-government ports, or non-major ports, recorded a modest 2.8% increase in overall cargo. While non-major ports posted a competitive 4.29% growth in overseas cargo, a steep decline in coastal cargo hindered their performance. A senior government official emphasized that major ports have been strategically reducing tariffs to attract more cargo, allowing them to outpace their private counterparts. "Tariff adjustments , combined with an emphasis on operational efficiency and infrastructure enhancements, have made major ports more attractive to importers and exporters, particularly for overseas cargo," the official explained.

Impact of Tariff Adjustments: The tariff adjustments at major ports have played a critical role in driving their recent growth. The Ministry of Ports, Shipping, and Waterways, in collaboration with key port authorities, introduced a series of competitive tariff reductions aimed at making these ports more financially viable for businesses engaged in overseas and coastal trade.

Lower Tariffs to Attract Cargo: Major ports have reduced tariffs across a wide range of services, including cargo handling, warehousing, and other port-related services. These lower tariffs have been designed to provide a cost-effective alternative to private and state-owned ports, which traditionally had higher tariffs.

This strategy has helped major ports capture more cargo, particularly from nearby private competitors.

JSW Infrastructure said that it has received Letter of Intent from Maharashtra Maritime Board (MMB) for developing and operating a Port at village Murbe in Palghar District of Maharashtra.

As per the terms of the contract, the company would develop, operate, manage and maintain an all-weather and multipurpose port at Murbe on public private partnership (PPP) basis design, built, own, operate and transfer (DBOOT) model.

The LOI is valid for the period of 24 months, with a further extension clause. The royalty payable is based on per metric ton which will be escalated in the block period of 5 years.

The contract is subject to fulfilment of the terms and condition stipulated therein. On meeting the terms & condition as stipulated in the LOI, MMB to enter into concession agreement (CA) for the said project. The CA will be valid 70 years.

The proposed Murbe port is designed to be an all-weather, multi-cargo commercial port. The proposed port is located near major highways such as the National Highway 8 & the State Highway (Boisar Road) and Rail Corridors such as the Delhi-Mumbai trunk rail route and the Dedicated Western Freight Corridor.

The Murbe greenfield project aligns with the company's FY2030 growth plan to increase capacity from 170 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 400 MTPA.

JSW Infrastructure a part of JSW Group, is the second largest commercial port operator in India in terms of cargo handling capacity. It develops and operates ports and port terminals pursuant to port concessions.

On consolidated basis, the port operator has reported 8.87% fall in net profit to Rs 292.44 crore in Q1 FY25 as against Rs 320.89 crore recorded in Q1 FY24. Revenue from operations grew by 14.99% year on year (YoY) to Rs 1,009.77 crore in the quarter ended 30 June 2024.